Freight rates tend to be stable after plummeting! Shipping companies plan to cancel half of their flights from Asia after the Spring Festival

It is reported that shipping companies are preparing to cancel about half of Voyage from Asia to Northern Europe and the United States after the Spring Festival against the background of extremely weak demand forecast.

High inventories in Europe and America, coupled with the uncertainty of consumer demand, lead to the cancellation or postponement of orders, and Chinese factories may have an early holiday before the Spring Festival.For example, Inditex, a fashion retail group, said at its earnings meeting last week that its inventory level increased by 27% on October 31 and 15% on December 8, and it has not yet planned orders for next year.

Maersk said in its latest North American market update that more shippers have chosen to wait until the end of the holiday before placing orders this year, because the inventory shipped in early 2022 has been able to meet the demand.

Meanwhile, this week ContainerSpot market freight indexStabilized after a sharp decline and may have bottomed out.Carrier and shipper sources expect spot rates to fluctuate within a narrow range in the coming months.

Shanghai EXP released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange last SaturdayContainerAccording to the latest data of freight index, the composite index fell by 1.3% to 1123.29 points, falling for 26 consecutive weeks, but the decline has obviously converged.Among them, European routes and Mediterranean routes increased slightly by 0.3% and 0.5%, while US-West routes and US-East routes decreased slightly by 0.5% and 3.7%.

The freight rate (ocean freight and shipping surcharge) from EXP to base port in Europe was USD 1,050/TEU, up 0.3% from the previous period.

The freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean base port market was US $1,851/TEU, up 0.5% from the previous period;

The freight rates from Shanghai Port to West America and East America in base port are US $1,423/FEU and US $3,169/FEU, respectively, down 0.5% and 3.7% from the previous period.

In addition, Drury WorldContainerThe latest data of the index also fluctuated slightly.The WCI composite index was US $2,127/FEU, down 1% from last week, and the freight rates of major routes such as Trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe decreased slightly month-on-month:

Stabilize after the freight rate plummets!Shipping companies plan to cancel half of Asia's departure from Voyage after the Spring Festival (with suspension summary)

Unit: USD/FEU

In the open market, shippers and non-vessel carriers (NVO) can get lower spot prices.Jon Monroe, consultant of NVOCC, pointed out that the spot price of US-West route is as low as US $1,200/FEU, and the spot price of US-East route is US $3,000/FEU.

Executives from carriers, freight forwarders and shippers told JOC last week that freight rates will not rise until the Lunar New Year as U.S. demand is expected to remain weak, while Chinese EXP is expected to slow early next month due to factory shutdowns over the Lunar New Year holiday.Will fall further.

Jeremy Nixon, chief executive of ONE, said at a media briefing in Port Los Angeles last Wednesday: "We have seen these rates bottoming out over the last two to three weeks and we expect this to continue into 2023.""

He also predicted that Asian EXP will fall sharply after the Chinese New Year holiday, and will be very weak in February and March."We can see if demand will start to pick up around April or May."

In addition, Jeremy Nixon also said that since October, the market has been weak and ONE has cancelled about 20% of Voyage will continue to fly to meet the demand.Like most shipping lines, ONE expects to operate only about 50% of its services over the Lunar New Year and will only resume operations if demand picks up.

According to Drury's latest Voyage cancellation tracking data, 100 of the 721 regular Voyage were cancelled between the 51st week of 2022 and the third week of 2023 on major routes such as Trans-Pacific, Asia to Northern Europe and Mediterranean Sea.53% of the blank Voyage will occur on the trans-Pacific eastbound route, 24% on the Eurasian Mediterranean route and 23% on the trans-Atlantic westbound route.

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