Global shipping volume has shrunk by 1% under Trump's tariff stick! An in-depth interpretation of supply chain transfer trends that freight forwarders must see Drewry's latest report

According to the latest report from maritime consultancy Drewry, global Container port volumes are expected to decline by 1% due to new trade policies implemented by the United States. This will be the third decline in global Container transportation demand since Drewry began recording relevant data in 1979. The first two occurred during the global financial crisis in 2009, when it fell by 8.4%, and when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020, when it fell by 0.9%.

The new trade policy pursued by the Trump administration includes a 10% tariff on most goods from Country, while tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods. In response, Chinese and other Country also imposed tariffs on American goods. In his presentation, Drewry noted that if the current two-thirds tariff remains unchanged, U.S. imports from China could be reduced by 40%. China is a major supplier of consumer goods, industrial products and furniture to the United States, so this change will have a profound impact on the global supply chain.

In response to this challenge, some Chinese companies are considering relocating their production lines to other Country that face lower tariffs, which may alleviate the downward trend of shipping demand to some extent. According to Drewry's forecast, against this background, U.S. imports from other Country may increase by up to 15%. However, economists have warned that President Trump's trade policies have raised the risk of the US economy falling into a recession that threatens to spread to global economies.

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund said that as the impact of Trump's high tariffs on almost all trading partners gradually emerges, the global economic growth rate will slow down in the coming months. Hapag-Lloyd, a German shipping company in Container, revealed that due to the trade dispute between the two major economies of China and the United States, customers have cancelled about 30% of their cargo orders from China to the United States. In addition, the National Retail Federation of the United States predicts that due to the suspension of Chinese purchases by companies, the volume of Container-based imports in the United States will drop by at least 20% year-on-year in the second half of 2025.

The executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, one of the busiest ports in the United States, warned that imports from the port could start falling as early as May. Located on the west coast of the United States, the Port of Los Angeles is an important gateway connecting Asian and North American markets and is crucial to maintaining logistical efficiency on trans-Pacific routes.