Transport stop

A few days ago, Container, where Chinese ports piled up into mountains, attracted attention.Industry insiders pointed out that empty Container is waiting for shipment in China.Insufficient volume (weak global demand) is the main reason for the accumulation (Buy Air Container)Empty container.Another major factor is that due to insufficient Container in 2021, the number of new Container will reach 7 million TEUs, which is three times that of normal years, which also causes the problem of surplus Container at present.Another factor is that China occupies seven of the top ten ports in the world.These ports have large storage capacity, strong loading and unloading capacity, low Warehousing and loading and unloading charges.They are the best choice for receiving empty containers.

According to a recent report by Bloomberg News, the installed capacity of container ships in the world is close to the highest level since the epidemic.About 4.1% of the global container fleet is idle, which is equivalent to 1.067 million TEUs.

At present, a large number of container ships are docked near China, betting on waiting for new export trade before China's economy recovers.

A senior executive of a foreign shipping company said that China is the biggest market.Wherever the market is, the ship will be shipped to Container.If Container leaves Transfer, another port, it will increase the transshipment cost, but the Chinese cargo volume will not increase after unsealing.Come out, you need to wait.

According to a freight forwarder interviewed by the First Financial Reporter, compared with the same period last year, the factory is no longer busy after the start of this year.The market has changed from "one box is hard to find" to "the ship is waiting for goods", and now all major docks are full of empty boxes.The cycle of shipping from shortage to surplus was faster than expected.And a large number of new ships will usher in the beginning of centralized launching and delivery this year.

People in the industry believe that it is hard to say whether the shipping industry will usher in a long-term downturn, but in the next few years, the shipping industry will not be very optimistic.But this year will still be a relatively high season.Some insiders pointed out that the accumulation of empty containers is not only due to the cyclical reason that the supply chain has not been restored after the holiday, but also due to the release of the epidemic at the end of last year, many production enterprises took early holidays, the inventory of raw materials decreased, and all procurement and production plans were postponed.Special factors.

Another freight forwarder said that the container transportation market will gradually recover one and a half months after the Spring Festival.Since the second half of 2022, affected by multiple unfavorable factors, it will take at least two months to see the market recover in 2023.Some practitioners believe that with the change of seasons, the market is relatively strong in summer and autumn. In addition, the liberalization of epidemic prevention and control in China this year and the introduction of a series of economic stimulus measures will bring sustained benefits to the market. Shipping and foreign trade.

Freight forwarder AlibabaWeasion Wei, Head of Logistics and Customs Affairs Department of International StationTell the First Financial Reporter: "As the benchmark of shipping rates in the US market, long-term contracts signed by general shipping companies with major customers will come into effect on January 1 before the end of April every year.At that time, the market spot freight rate will float based on the approximate price.Judging from the recovery speed of the demand side, it is expected that this year's watershed will appear around June.

It believes that the freight rate and cargo volume in the shipping market have experienced drastic fluctuations during the epidemic, and with the launching of new ships one after another, the market will usher in restructuring.Shipping-related companies must go in two steps:

First, pay attention to the trend of overseas production capacity and supply chain transfer to Southeast Asia."This trend is still going on. It should be where the goods arrive and where the freight forwarder will go";

The second is to enhance China's trade service capacity and increase core barriers."Chinese merchants are in distribution managementSupply chain services have the ability to assemble goods andLogistics, but low value-added goods do not necessarily come from China, that is to say, more and more goods and services will be separated, and low value-added products and services made in China will be increased, and overseas processing and manufacturing will be divided.

At present, the development of foreign trade is entering the "high-quality growth era" from the "flow growth era".Logistics, as an important part of distribution performance, has also changed from the certainty guarantee of distribution of "soaring freight rate" and "one box is hard to find" during the epidemic period to the cost-effective service today.

First, it is easier for customers to provide end-to-end services;

The second is to build a decentralized network, return to the local language, improve efficiency, and find growth points in the stock.

China's foreign trade has achieved sustained development during the epidemic, and this growth rate will not completely fade this year.At the same time, the rising trend of China's export products and services to higher added value can be seen from the increase of commodity unit price, this trend will continue.

Earlier, Lu Daliang, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs, said at the press conference held by the State Council Office that the foundation of China's economic recovery is still not solid, the external environment is turbulent, and the downward pressure on the economy is increasing. The world economy is growing.China's foreign trade development is facing challenges.There are still many difficulties and challenges.While facing difficulties and challenges, we should also see that China's economy is resilient, has great potential and is full of vitality.The long-term positive fundamentals have not changed.The economy is expected to rebound overall in 2023. We must firmly promote confidence in stabilizing the scale and optimizing the structure of foreign trade.

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